myAIPMCrystal Cube: Forecasting Disruptive Events
Buczaka, A.L. et al |Applied Artificial Intelligence, an International Journal
Events including major protests, riots, military actions and irregular leadership changes, can present short and long term challenges to the missions of domestic and foreign governments and nongovernmental organizations. Contingency planning for these types of events is often a requirement for operating in high-risk environments. Yet maintaining these plans in a constant state of readiness is expensive and challenging and even the best plans often cannot address these types of disruptive events when they occur. Furthermore, new global threats have increased instability in many parts of the world, posing new challenges to many functions of governments, such as policy development, escalation management, resource allocation and crisis response. There has been significant research into forecasting these events as it is acknowledged that it is easier to prepare for, influence and respond to disruptive events in their earliest stages when they are less threatening and more manageable.
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Buczaka, A.L., Baughera, B.D., Martina, C.S., Keiley, M.W., Howard,J., Parrisha, N.H., Stalicka, A.Q., Bermana,D.S., and Dredzeb, M.H. (2021). Crystal Cube: Forecasting Disruptive Events. Applied Artificial Intelligence, an International Journal. https://doi.org/10.1080/08839514.2021.2001179